Augmented Reality in 2010 - How Did Our Predictions Fare?
Top three accurate predictions
- "The first cross-browser cross-platform AR content will start to appear" - Thomas Wrobel was spot on with this prediction.
- "Commercial AR will continue to be dominated by startups and small companies." - There's a reason why is now Layar's AR strategist
- "10x total investments in AR start ups over 2009" (Ori Inbar). Well, close enough, thanks to Layar and Tonchidot.
Top three inaccurate predictions
- "Apple's tablet will take AR to the next level with object recognition and a wider screen to view the world. " - Tom Carpenter would later pen one of the most read posts on Games Alfresco - "Apple's iPad Camera Fail".
- "A big social discussion will be triggered when google launches their HMD device connected to Android. People will form strikes and rallies against technology addiction." (Toby Kammann) - I must have missed that. To be fair, Toby did preface his predictions saying he's pessimistic about HMD going on sale this year.
- "I see either Layar buying Wikitude or Wikitude buying Layar. Either way I don't see their being 2 main browsers at the end of 2010." (Lester Madden) - Though many AR browsers have come and gone, Wikitude, Layar, Junaio and Sekai Camera are still playing strong. Anyhow, it's not like I was much more accurate, guessing that Microsoft will buy Wikitude.
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5 comments:
Here are my predictions:
1. You'll finally start seeing investment from VC's in U.S. based AR companies (to date, Ogmento is only U.S. based company to receive initial round of funding.)
2. Kiosk and Web based AR will be main areas of investment by brands despite the hype around mobile AR
3. Towards the end of 2011, you'll start seeing M&A activity with the large companies like Google, Apple, etc. purchasing AR companies that have specific patents or technologies. In 2012, you'll likely start seeing further consolidation and M&A with AR companies themselves
4. Microsoft will make Kinect open source
5. Adobe Molehill will change the web AR landscape rendering certain companies "proprietary AR techs" obsolete
I think PrimeSense will licence to other camera Mfg's. Google and Facebook will then create apps that tie into those. MS will then reiterate their "do not hack" policy to save what's left of their proprietary property. HUDs will still flounder without a clear direction for another year or so, unless Apple seizes the opportunity.
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